Food, Feed, & Fuel - the Biofuel Battle

The battle over renewable energy rages own, California recently adopted new fuel standards which could pose a serious threat to Midwestern corn farmers. It was projected that ethanol would eventually account for a third of US corn production. California has typically been a leader in automobile emission standards and the recent announcement could be the first domino to fall in a nationwide alternative fuel debate. On May 1, in an email to the DTN Ethanol Center, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) stated that the EPA was considering revisions to the renewable fuel standards.

The University of Nebraska recently revised their report, Indirect Land Use Emissions in the Life Cycle of Biofuels; the report attempts quantify the opportunity cost of land, such as rain forests being converted to farmland for the production. The report highlights the competitive forces in biofuel markets. Corn has three main usages, food, feed, and fuel; as corn shifted from the first two alternative to the later, corn prices rose. Increased demand for corn led to the conversion of grasslands and forests to farmland. This conversion depletes the carbon offset opportunities.

This land conversion was previously not considering in assessing the most efficient and environmentally friendly fuel sources. The California Air Resource Board (CARB) used the Global Trade Analysis Program (GTAP) from Purdue University to evaluate various fuel options. The analysis assigned traditional gasoline a "life cycle intensity" value of 96 grams of CO2 per megajule. Prior to the life cycle analysis, corn-based ethanol was assigned a value of 69; however, the recent studies have assigned a value of 30 to the land use of corn. The new life cycle intensity of 99 has effectively eliminated corn as a viable alternative fuel in California and delivered a hard blow to corn farmers and ethanol producers.

On either side of the aisle, the role of the government is to provide public goods and correct market failures. Air quality is a public good that often suffers from the tragedy of the commons and thus requires government action to correct failures. The classic economic theory points to sheep grazing in England. Shepherds that utilized the land for grazing lacked incentive to prudently use the land, the would be over used, depleting the land. A regulatory body is required to manage the land and restrict the number of sheep grazing. Legendary links courses in Scotland are the greatest positive externality to arise from grazing lands. Deep burns and bunkers sheltered the sheep from the salty sea breeze.

Unfortunately, government action can create new distortions and market inefficiencies. Minnesota has recently opened the ethanol subsidy for debate, the state of Minnesota has awarded $314 million in subsidies since the program started. The subsidies were designed to incent building and production of ethanol in belief that as production came on line, the scale would enable plants to produce ethanol at efficient prices. In retrospect, state and national subsidies likely created overbuilding in the industry. Additionally, supply distorting practices by the OPEC countries artificially inflated oil prices, further incenting inefficient building of production capacity. The result has been financial difficulties for US ethanol producers, notably VeraSun with its October Chapter 11 Bankruptcy filing.

In the current scenario, the US Government originally picked, likely as a result of heavy lobbying, corn ethanol as the preferred alternative automobile fuel. Another example of the government picking winners; with another change of the rule in the middle of the game, now ethanol is the loser. An alternative route would be to tax fossil fuels, artificially raising the price of traditional options and leveling the playing field for new sources. The market would be free to choose petroleum, corn ethanol, sugarcane ethanol, or biodiesel. Similarly, the Government could provide an 'award' for developing new technologies, similar to the battery proposal.

Generally, the Government plays a vital role in correcting market failures, but should focus on not creating new inefficiencies. The environment is a public good that is easily exploited beyond an individual's allotment. Government action is required to correct this particular inefficiency, but has done so incorrectly in the past. New solutions are required that create prudent investment and usage of fuels. Energy independence is not easily achieved. However, when push comes to shove and oil, gas, and coal are no longer available, the market it innovate and solve the problems, with or without Government assistance.

The Hedge Fund ‘Transparency’ (Regulation) Act of 2009

On January 29, Senators Grassley and Levin introduced The Hedge Fund Transparency Act, a revision to Grassley’s previously proposed legislation – Hedge Fund Registration Act of 2007 (S.1402). The 2009 Act calls for an amendment to the Investment Company Act of 1940. While titled a ‘transparency’ act, the proposed bill effectively broadens the regulatory authority of the SEC. The Act of 1940 defines an investment company and details the regulation set forth by U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), primarily overseeing traditional mutual funds and closed-end funds. The act as currently written allows hedge funds to avoid being listed as investment companies because they are not open to the general public and often via pooled entities have fewer than 15 investors. Hedge Funds are only open to “qualified purchasers” or sophisticated investors (pension funds, endowments, wealthy individuals, etc) and thus are allowed to engage in higher risk, higher reward investments without the regulatory burden of the SEC.

As mentioned, hedge funds are currently not “investment companies” and are thus not subject to SEC oversight. Under the proposed bill, hedge funds would qualify as investment companies, but with special qualifications reducing the required level of disclosure and amount regulation. The availability of mutual funds to retail investors warrants the high degree of regulation and disclosure. The act would require all hedge funds to disclose the following:

(a) List the companies and natural individuals who are the beneficial owners of the fund
(b) Explain the ownership structure
(c) List of affiliated financial institutions
(d) Minimum investment commitment required from an investor
(e) Total number of investors in the fund
(f) Name of the fund’s primary accountant and broker
(g) Current value of the fund’s assets and assets under management (AUM) – effectively disclosing returns

Grassley and Levin provide three arguments for amendment, two of which have some merit. First, hedge funds have exploded by number of firms (10,000) and assets under management ($1.8 trillion), thus hedge funds play a significant role in the financial markets. Second, pension plans, endowments and charities invest in hedge funds leaving working class Americans and all sector of the economy susceptible to hedge fund activity. Last and most importantly, hedge funds have become commingled with the regulated financial sectors; many financial services holding companies of federally insured banks and insurance companies are also owners of hedge fund affiliates. As the funds encroach on the regulated and insured sectors, the ripple effects become severe, as exhibited in 2008. Levin highlighted in his speech on the Senate Floor such effects: Bear Sterns two affiliated hedge funds failed, Merrill Lynch’s investments in Bear Stern’s funds contributed to ML’s failure, with ML’s demise imminent, Bank of America (a FDIC insured depository institution) acquired ML. Bank of America, which received TARP funds, is now further susceptible the volatile and secretive hedge fund world. It is murky how the proposed disclosure would have prevented our current financial meltdown. Listing affiliated financial institutions would provide retail investors with some information regarding the potential risk to public listed firms; however, assessing the magnitude of losses would likely prove difficult.

It is important to note that hedge funds are not completely without regulation. Institutional investment managers, hedge funds qualify, with over $100 million in capital invested in exchange traded securities are required to report via Form 13F a listing of security holdings within 45 days of quarter-end. Said listings are available to the public via EDGAR.

The proposed regulatory requirement do not appear to onerous for the funds, nor is the mild disclosure likely to materially impact the funds ability to quietly build positions – often a key to ‘generating alpha’. Levin concluded his speech with the following remarks “The ‘Hedge Fund Transparency Act’ will protect investors, and it will help protect our financial system.” In analyzing the proposed legislation, it is unclear how the small amount of transparency will protect investors. Hedge funds will be subject some oversight by the understaffed SEC, but it is difficult to ascertain if the proposed level of disclosure would have reduced the carnage in the markets in 2008. Levin further noted that “It is time to bring hedge funds under the federal regulatory umbrella”, which indeed this entry-level regulation will open up hedge funds to further regulation in the future. Restrictions on holdings and leverage would be particularly negative for fund managers. Hedge funds are at the top of a slippery slope of regulation which will hopefully not continue the US march toward less competitive capital markets.

Obamanomics arrives: policy priorities for the new President

President Barack Obama faces a long economic "to-do" list in his first term. The first 100 days must focus on stabilizing the economy by fixing the financial sector and passing a well-crafted stimulus bill. These policies will set the tone for the longer-term reforms required to address budget deficits, regulatory reform, and waning U.S. competitiveness.

President Barack Obama faces a long economic "to-do" list in his first term. The first 100 days must focus on stabilizing the economy by fixing the financial sector and passing a well-crafted stimulus bill. These policies will set the tone for the longer-term reforms required to address budget deficits, regulatory reform, and waning U.S. competitiveness.

1. Fix the Banks
Obama must first fix the nation's banks if he hopes to fix the American economy. Wall Street is directly linked to Main Street: businesses unable to obtain credit cannot make payroll, service debts, or invest in new job creation. President Obama must recapitalize the banking sector, clearly articulating principles for when and how the government would intervene. Bailouts should be used only when market-failure could trigger a contagious downward spiral, and should be structured to prioritize limiting economic damage first, safeguarding taxpayer investments second and minimizing inefficiencies and distortions third. With this commitment to stability and Federal Reserve liquidity flooding into banks, lending and job creation will return as the economy stabilizes. Public opposition to the first bank bailout program may make President Obama hesitant to act, but failing to do so is a recipe for failure.

2. Craft a smart stimulus bill
If the President's first economic challenge is courage in the face of opposition, the second will be to seize the opportunity - and avoid the pitfalls - that his stimulus plan presents. How the $825 billion of proposed funds are spent - on tax cuts, transfer payments, local government grants, or investments - must balance boosting employment with investing in future growth prospects, while easing the burden on those most impacted by the recession. Numerous interest groups, some of which expect payback for votes delivered in November, will seek to push their constituents' interests over these national priorities. Succumbing to these interests or trying to make the recession painless is the fastest way to ensure that government inefficiency and the rejection of free markets stain Obamanomics with the mark of failure. The President proposed significant accountability to minimize these failures in implementing the policy but first must determine the optimal mix of tax cuts, transfers, grants and spending.

Taxes
Tax cuts that incentivize investments in future GDP growth deliver tremendous value. They act quickly, align the nation for the future, and prioritize free-market efficiency. Obama's earned income, college tuition, and first-time homebuyer credits for individuals and his business tax credits all meet these criteria. These should be retained and expanded. Conversely, Obama's plan to provide lump-sum tax cuts unrelated to GDP boosting investments - similar in nature to the failed 2008 rebate check strategy - is $140 billion better used to bolster government investments in infrastructure and education.

Spending
The $550 billion of spending outlined by President Obama includes transfer payments, grants to local governments, and investments. Transfer payments (largely extended unemployment insurance, food stamps, and college aid exceeding $100 billion) provide an immediate boost to growth and a cushion to those most impacted by the recession. Obama should extend these transfers, but must ensure that individuals have a clear path back to fruitful employment by creating jobs and providing education and job retraining programs.

The $200-plus billion in grants to local governments to maintain healthcare, education, and public safety service levels shield governments from recession much as transfers shield individuals. These grants advance worthy goals, but they allow government officials to avoid reducing costs or increasing efficiency as recessions normally force officials to do. Obama should only deliver grants to local governments that are willing to improve efficiency and cut costs before turning to grant money.

The remaining $200-plus billion is allocated to a laundry list of investment projects. Projects should be reprioritized using an investor's mindset, calculating the amount and timing of future benefits produced relative to the cost of the project. High return-on-investment projects should be prioritized, whether the return comes as GDP growth, better healthcare outcomes, or a cleaner environment.

Implementing this approach will require political courage, for some projects may be politically unpopular. To cite but one example, the plan devotes $650 million to subsidizing TV converter boxes, generating minimal economic benefits but politically popular amongst recipients. Those funds would be better spent boosting the measly $25 million allocated to charter schools - a move that benefits predominately inner-city students but might anger teacher unions who strongly supported Obama. President Obama must muster the courage to demand sacrifices from close supporters as well as those with different ideological views to pass the most effective stimulus bill.

3. Start planning to fix the deficit -- including entitlements
President Obama's short-term economic challenges seem formidable until confronted with the long-term problem of balancing the government's budget deficits - including the rapidly growing entitlement programs. President Obama rightfully notes that the issue has been ignored for too long. With near-record high popularity - and hopefully a track record of competence, cooperation, and fairness gained from his stimulus bill - the President has a strong position to negotiate long-term solutions for the consolidated Federal budget. While the President's chances for re-election may hinge on the success of his stimulus plan in diverting economic decline, the history books will focus on his resolution - or lack thereof - of this critical issue.

4. Get the regulation right
History is less likely to remember the President for regulatory reform, but the economy will certainly notice. The financial sector regulatory failure of the past two years exemplifies the need for reform. Institutions overseen by numerous different agencies failed, and the response from the Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, FDIC, and various smaller agencies seemed muddled at best. Instinctively, politicians called for more regulation. But it is not more regulation that is necessary but better regulation. Consolidating regulators, assigning exclusive jurisdiction, and focusing on fewer but more important rules lowers costs and increases effectiveness. The potential for dramatic (if underappreciated) impact on the economy earns regulatory reform a place on the President's to-do list.

5. Put government on business's side
That to-do list has so far focused on government bailouts, stimulus, and regulation. However, business, not government, drives long-term economic prosperity, and America's business environment has deteriorated relative to other nations. American businesses seem constrained by the government instead of supported by it. This must change; supporting business competitiveness should be an explicit government goal. The Obama Administration should enlist the private sector in developing a strategy to address American competitiveness. Whether investing in education and infrastructure, reforming regulatory, administrative, and judicial processes, or tailoring tax laws, government support of business is critical to growth. Encouraging businesses to invest and innovate is the only way to ensure long-term economic success. The new Administration must find ways to encourage private investment and innovation to sustain the recovery the stimulus will hopefully spark.


The President has noted that in crisis lies opportunity. Mr. Obama should seize the opportunity before him to not only lead a short-term recovery but enact policies that set a course for generations of American prosperity.